WASHINGTON, D.C. - The "Ukraine Macroeconomic Situation – June 2018" analytical report with several charts and graphs can be found at the link below.  The monthly Macroeconomic Situation report is prepared by the SigmaBleyzer multinational private equity firm, www.SigmaBleyzer.com, and The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), www.BleyzerFoundation.org, Kyiv, Ukraine, who are long time members of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), http://www.USUBC.org.  

Executive Summary

  1. In June, the Verhovna Rada enacted the new Anticorruption Court Law.  Amendments made in July removed some deficiencies in the law, in particular, the proposal that those cases that had been already investigated by NABU should be handled by regular courts and not the new Anticorruption Court.  The passage of this amended law is an important step to address corruption in the country.  It should pave the way for future co-operation with the IMF and EU. Also in July, Verhovna Rada passed a bill to facilitate the sale of loan collaterals, which in the past required a court decisions. 
  2. The latest release of the State Statistics Committee confirmed that GDP grew by 3.1% yoy in the first quarter of 2018. The mayor sources of GDP growth were gross capital formation (17% yoy) and household consumption (5.6% yoy).
  3. Monthly data showed recovery in most economic sectors in May 2018. Agricultural production showed positive sign for the first time in three months (2.6% yoy, 6.4% mom), and construction output increased by 2.7% yoy (20.5% mom). In like manner, Ukrainian retail trade and passenger turnover increased by 4.9% yoy and 10.8% yoy, respectively.  Industrial production also grew by 2.5% yoy in May 2018, with manufacturing increasing by 3.2% yoy.
  4. The consolidated budget was executed with a surplus for the second consecutive month in May. Both state and local budgets were in surplus. As a result, the consolidated budget was in surplus of UAH 14.6 billion in January-May.
  5. Consumer inflation significantly decelerated in May. The all items index decreased from 13.1% yoy to 11.7% yoy mainly thanks to sharp deceleration in growth of foodstuffs prices.  
  6. In the banking sector, national currency deposits grew at an accelerated rate, while foreign currency deposits denominated in USD declined for the second month in a row. Growth of national currency deposits accelerated thanks to faster expansion of corporate deposits (by 11.6% yoy). Bank lending activities improved again in May. Growth of  national currency loans accelerated to 16.9% yoy.
  7. The UAH/USD exchange rate remained stable in May, ending the month at around 26.3 UAH/USD.
  8. In May 2018 the current account of the balance of payments had a small deficit of USD 41 million.  Significant growth of the primary & secondary net income surpluses of USD 419 million and USD 326 million, partly compensated a large imbalance of USD 913 million in the merchandise trade account. Financial inflows of USD 307 million, led to an increase in international reserves to USD 18.2 billion.



  9.  

    Main Macroeconomic Indicators

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018f

    GDP, USD billion

    173

    180

    130

    87

    93.4

    104

    113

    Real GDP Growth, % yoy

    0.2

    0.0

    -6.6

    -9.9

    2.3

    2.5

    3.5

    Fiscal Balance (incl. Naftogaz/Pension Fund),% of GDP

    -5.5

    -6.5

    -11.7

    -2.1

    -2.3

    -1.5

    -2.5

    Public Debt, External and Domestic, % of GDP

    36.6

    40.4

    69.4

    79.1

    81.2

    78.5

    78.0

    Consumer Inflation, eop, % yoy

    -0.2

    0.5

    24.9

    43.3

    12.4

    13.7

    9.0

    NBU Key Policy Interest Rate, % eop

    7.5

    6.5

    14.5

    17.0

    16.7

    16.4

    17.0

    Hryvnia Exchange Rate per USD, eop

    8.1

    8.2

    15.8

    24.0

    27.1

    28.1

    28.0

    Current Account Balance, % of GDP

    -8.3

    -9.2

    -3.5

    -0.2

    -3.8

    -3.7

    -3.5

    Merchandise Exports, USD billons

    64

    59

    51

    35

    34

    40

    43

    Merchandise Imports, USD billions

    86

    81

    58

    39

    40

    49

    52

    FDI, Net Annual Inflow, USD billion

    8.4

    4.5

    0.4

    3.0

    3.3

    2.3

    5.0

    International Reserves, USD billion

    24.5

    20.4

    7.5

    13.3

    15.5

    18.8

    21.0

    Public External Debt, USD billion

    32.1

    31.7

    34.9

    42.6

    42.5

    47.0

    52.0

    Private External Debt, USD billion

    102.3

    110.3

    91.2

    76.0

    69.9

    67.0

    72.0

     


    NOTE:  The entire Macroeconomic Situation Report for June 2018 can be found at the link below:Ukr_Monthly_Ec_Report_June_2018.pdf