Analysis & Commentary: by David J. Kramer
The Weekly Standard, Wash, D.C., Sat, Aug 1, 2009 

SPEAKING THE TRUTH: BIDEN ON RUSSIA

Analysis & Commentary: by David J. Kramer
The Weekly Standard, Wash, D.C., Sat, Aug 1, 2009 

Vice President Biden had just completed a successful visit to Ukraine and Georgia last week when he created a new controversy with dire predictions about Russia. His comments, arguably ill-timed for his boss's efforts to reset relations with Moscow, were not the only ones in the past few days offering a gloomy outlook on Russia.

The outgoing European Union Ambassador to Russia Marc Franco similarly warned that Russia would maintain "many characteristics of a Third World economy" unless it established real rule of law.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on July 23, Biden described a Russia with a looming demographic crisis, a "withering economy", and a banking sector in trouble. He noted Russia's interest in negotiating further cuts in nuclear weapons because they cannot afford to maintain even current levels. Russia is having difficulty adjusting to "loss of empire," Biden said, adding that it is "clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable."

In a separate interview over the weekend with Reuters, Franco cited Russia's insufficiently developed civil society and lack of freedom of the press. "I do believe," Franco said, "that you cannot have rule of law without the basic elements of democracy, implying free elections and a vibrant civil society supported by a free press."

In their descriptions of current Russia, both Biden and Franco were on the mark. Russia's economic troubles (the World Bank predicts GDP will decline 7.9 percent this year) are compounded by its continued dependence on the export of raw materials (energy, metals), leaving it vulnerable to outside factors beyond its control.

Over the past eight years despite the bounty from high oil prices, Russia's leaders failed to diversify the economy or invest in its declining infrastructure and energy sector, production in which has flattened out and likely to decline in the next several years. At the same time, Russian corporate debt is estimated at $500 billion, $130 billion of which is due this year.

Meanwhile, Russia's population has been declining by an average of 700,000 per year and may reach a low, in worst case scenarios, of 100 million by 2050 from roughly 143 million today. This will have enormous implications for Russia's labor force, its military, and its ability to control restive regions like the North Caucasus, one of the few places where the population is on the rise. Corruption remains a huge problem, while civil society activists, journalists, and opponents of the government deal with regular harassment, attacks, and even murder. Russia, in other words, faces a very difficult future.

In an appearance on Sunday's Meet the Press, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Russia as a "great power" and reiterated President Obama's hope to see a "strong, peaceful, and prosperous" Russia. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement Saturday evening, "The president and vice president believe Russia will work with us not out of weakness but out of national interest."

Alas, that is wishful thinking. Contrary to Biden's description of Russia's leaders as "pretty pragmatic in the end" and likely to cooperate with the U.S. out of national interest on issues such as Iran, the very problems he identified are likely to make Russia a more difficult country with which to engage. We and Russian leaders simply do not share many national interests, to say nothing of common values.

A Russia facing the kinds of problems Biden and Franco described is more apt to deflect its population's attention from the growing number of difficulties at home by projecting onto others like neighboring Georgia or Ukraine. There's nothing like a "threat" from Tbilisi or Kyiv -- or from NATO enlargement -- to drum up popular support and take everyone's minds off the problems at home, at least temporarily.

Even on the issue of arms control, Russian leaders have insisted that a final agreement be linked to the U.S. abandonment of missile defense plans in Poland and the Czech Republic. If Russia cannot afford to maintain its current declining levels of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles anyway, Obama need not cave to Russian demands to link a post-START agreement to missile defense. Russian leaders need an arms control treaty more than we do.

On Iran, Biden said, "I can see Putin sitting in Moscow saying, 'Jesus Christ, Iran gets the nuclear weapon, who goes first?' Moscow, not Washington." This, too, is wishful thinking given that Russian leaders have repeatedly declined to get tougher with Iran over its nuclear weapons aspirations. They would much prefer the United States and its allies play the role of the heavy vis-à-vis Tehran while Russia reaps the benefits of economic, energy, and arms sales ties with Iran.

A Russian leadership facing the kinds of problems Biden and Franco describe is less, not more, likely to work together with us on a whole host of issues. Its leadership is apt to clamp down even more against the slightest possible threats to its control, increasing the dangers to the country's own human rights activists and journalists such as Natalya Estimorova, murdered in Chechnya July 15.

Sadly, these are not the characteristics of a "great power" or even a country with a leadership that reflects "pragmatism" or "shared interests" with us. As the Obama administration seeks to reset relations with Moscow, it should do so very much keeping in mind the truth, inconvenient and ill-timed though it may be, spoken by the vice president.

NOTE:  David J. Kramer is a Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and served as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor and a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova, in the George W. Bush Administration.

LINK: http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/803tfwfc.asp