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UKRAINE - MACROECONOMIC SITUATION – October 2018
ANALYTICAL REPORT: by Oleg Ustenko, Djulia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk, Edilberto L. Segura
SigmaBleyzer private equity investment management firm & The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), Kyiv, Ukraine
LINK: Ukr_Monthly_Ec_Report_October_2018_Final.pdf
Published by U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC),
Washington, D.C., Mon, Nov 13, 2018
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The "Ukraine Macroeconomic Situation – October 2018" analytical report with several charts and graphs can be found at the link below. The monthly Macroeconomic Situation report is prepared by the SigmaBleyzer multinational private equity firm, www.SigmaBleyzer.com, and The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), www.BleyzerFoundation.org, Kyiv, Ukraine, who are long time members of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), http://www.USUBC.org.
Executive Summary
- In October 2018, Ukraine and the IMF agreed to continue their cooperation under a new USD 3.9 billion Stand-by Arrangement. This agreement will support the country’s financial stability until the end of 2019.
- The newly released World Bank Doing Business Report shows that Ukraine has made significant progress. The country climbed five spots in the ranking and currently occupies the 71st position among 190 countries.
- According to the latest information from the Office of the President, during the first nine months of 2018, GDP grew by 3.8% yoy. For the year as a whole GDP is expected to increase by a rate of 3.5% to 4.0%.
- During September the main engine of economic growth continued to be the agricultural sector, which expanded by 11.4% yoy (52.1% mom), supported by favorable weather conditions. Other sectors did not perform as well, with small declines in most activities. These declines were caused by a weakening of private consumption, caused by a 12.9% yoy decline in real wages and an increase of 17.1% yoy in wage arrears in September 2018.
- The consolidated fiscal budget remains satisfactorily, with a surplus of UAH 14.5 billion (about 0.6% of period GDP) for January-September 2018. For the entire year 2018, the consolidated fiscal budget is expected to have a deficit of 2.5% of GDP as agreed with the IMF.
- Consumer inflation has been relatively stable for a third month in a row. The all items price index remained at 8.9% yoy in September. Core inflation also remained unchanged at 8.7% yoy.
- In the banking sector, both deposits and lending activities posted improvements in September. Hryvnia deposits expanded by 11.8% yoy, while Hryvnia loans expanded by 13.2% yoy.
- During October, the exchange rate has remained stable, finishing the month at around 28.1 UAH/USD.
- In September 2018 the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments amounted to USD 1.7 billion. This deficit was caused by a 3.6% decline in goods exports alongside a 17.3% increase in imports of goods, principally of oil and gas. Financial inflows of USD 1.1 billion (principally from trade credits) financed the bulk of the CA deficit. International reserves amounted to USD 16.6 billion at the beginning of October.
NOTE: The entire Macroeconomic Situation Report for October 2018 can be found at the link below: Ukr_Monthly_Ec_Report_October_2018_Final.pdf
