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UKRAINE - MACROECONOMIC SITUATION – JUNE 2018
ANALYTICAL REPORT: by Oleg Ustenko, Djulia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk, Edilberto L. Segura
SigmaBleyzer private equity investment management firm & The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), Kyiv, Ukraine
Published by U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC),
Washington, D.C., Mon, July 23, 2018
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The "Ukraine Macroeconomic Situation – June 2018" analytical report with several charts and graphs can be found at the link below. The monthly Macroeconomic Situation report is prepared by the SigmaBleyzer multinational private equity firm, www.SigmaBleyzer.com, and The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), www.BleyzerFoundation.org, Kyiv, Ukraine, who are long time members of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), http://www.USUBC.org.
- In June, the Verhovna Rada enacted the new Anticorruption Court Law. Amendments made in July removed some deficiencies in the law, in particular, the proposal that those cases that had been already investigated by NABU should be handled by regular courts and not the new Anticorruption Court. The passage of this amended law is an important step to address corruption in the country. It should pave the way for future co-operation with the IMF and EU. Also in July, Verhovna Rada passed a bill to facilitate the sale of loan collaterals, which in the past required a court decisions.
- The latest release of the State Statistics Committee confirmed that GDP grew by 3.1% yoy in the first quarter of 2018. The mayor sources of GDP growth were gross capital formation (17% yoy) and household consumption (5.6% yoy).
- Monthly data showed recovery in most economic sectors in May 2018. Agricultural production showed positive sign for the first time in three months (2.6% yoy, 6.4% mom), and construction output increased by 2.7% yoy (20.5% mom). In like manner, Ukrainian retail trade and passenger turnover increased by 4.9% yoy and 10.8% yoy, respectively. Industrial production also grew by 2.5% yoy in May 2018, with manufacturing increasing by 3.2% yoy.
- The consolidated budget was executed with a surplus for the second consecutive month in May. Both state and local budgets were in surplus. As a result, the consolidated budget was in surplus of UAH 14.6 billion in January-May.
- Consumer inflation significantly decelerated in May. The all items index decreased from 13.1% yoy to 11.7% yoy mainly thanks to sharp deceleration in growth of foodstuffs prices.
- In the banking sector, national currency deposits grew at an accelerated rate, while foreign currency deposits denominated in USD declined for the second month in a row. Growth of national currency deposits accelerated thanks to faster expansion of corporate deposits (by 11.6% yoy). Bank lending activities improved again in May. Growth of national currency loans accelerated to 16.9% yoy.
- The UAH/USD exchange rate remained stable in May, ending the month at around 26.3 UAH/USD.
- In May 2018 the current account of the balance of payments had a small deficit of USD 41 million. Significant growth of the primary & secondary net income surpluses of USD 419 million and USD 326 million, partly compensated a large imbalance of USD 913 million in the merchandise trade account. Financial inflows of USD 307 million, led to an increase in international reserves to USD 18.2 billion.
Main Macroeconomic Indicators
GDP, USD billion
Real GDP Growth, % yoy
Fiscal Balance (incl. Naftogaz/Pension Fund),% of GDP
Public Debt, External and Domestic, % of GDP
Consumer Inflation, eop, % yoy
NBU Key Policy Interest Rate, % eop
Hryvnia Exchange Rate per USD, eop
Current Account Balance, % of GDP
Merchandise Exports, USD billons
Merchandise Imports, USD billions
FDI, Net Annual Inflow, USD billion
International Reserves, USD billion
Public External Debt, USD billion
Private External Debt, USD billion
NOTE: The entire Macroeconomic Situation Report for June 2018 can be found at the link below:Ukr_Monthly_Ec_Report_June_2018.pdf